Austin Median Price $439K, Down 20% From Peak

Austin Median Price $439K, Down 20% From Peak
May 2026 Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update May 05, 2026 | Daily Briefing

Austin Real Estate Holds Steady at $439,000 Median as Pending Sales Climb 5.4% Year Over Year. The austin housing market is sending a quieter but more interesting signal than the headlines usually capture: prices have stabilized near a four-year low while demand is slowly waking up underneath the surface.

The median sold price in austin came in at $439,000 for April 2026, holding within a few thousand dollars of where it has traded for most of the past year. That number is down 20.18% from the May 2022 peak of $550,000, a drop of roughly $111,000 in just under four years. For buyers who lived through the frantic bidding wars of 2021 and 2022, that figure is a meaningful reset. For sellers, it is a reminder that the market still demands sharp pricing if a home is going to move.

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What makes today's austin market update worth a closer look is not the median itself, but what is happening around it. Pending listings, which represent homes that have gone under contract but have not yet closed, came in at 5,141. That is up 5.4% from the same point last year, and the year-to-date cumulative pending count of 16,215 is running 6.3% ahead of 2025 and 16.4% above the long-term average. Pending sales are a leading indicator of where the market is headed, and right now they are leaning gently in a more positive direction. This is one of the more constructive signals in the current austin real estate forecast.

Active inventory tells a complementary story. There are 16,127 homes for sale across the austin metro today, which is essentially flat against the 16,261 listings on the market a year ago, a difference of less than 1%. That number is also 2,019 listings below the June 30, 2025 peak of 18,146. Inventory is no longer climbing the way it did through most of 2024 and the first half of 2025. The supply side of the equation is starting to settle.

The austin housing forecast looks even more interesting when you break inventory into resale and new construction. Of the 16,127 active homes, 12,413 are resale and 3,714 are new construction. On the pending side, new construction accounts for 1,823 contracts and resale for 3,318. The Activity Index, which measures how much of the active inventory is under contract, sits at 32.92% for new construction and 21.09% for resale. New construction is moving meaningfully faster than the resale segment, in part because builders continue to use rate buy-downs and price adjustments to keep their pipelines turning.

Price discounting remains a defining feature of the austin housing market. Across all active listings, 48.8% have had at least one price reduction. That means nearly half of the inventory sitting on the market today has already been repriced, and only 2.1% of homes have seen a price increase. In some cities the share of price-reduced listings is even higher. Hutto sits at 58.3%, San Marcos at 57.3%, and Jarrell at 56.3%. Buyers walking into negotiations have a strong data point in their pocket. Sellers who priced their homes based on 2022 comps are the ones doing most of the cutting.

Months of Inventory, which measures how many months it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace of sales, came in at 5.65. That is down from 5.80 a year ago, a 2.6% improvement. The metric still sits firmly in the Buyer Advantage zone for the broader metro, but the year over year direction matters. Looking at the longer view, 28 of 30 tracked cities have higher inventory than they did two years ago, but year over year, 19 of 30 cities now show lower inventory than May 2025. The market is not snapping back, but it is no longer drifting toward looser conditions either.

The Activity Index for the metro stands at 24.2%, up from 23.1% a year ago. That places austin in the Softening phase of the market cycle, which is defined as a period of slower sales and rising inventory. The 4.7% year over year improvement is small but meaningful, especially when paired with rising pending counts. The Activity Index can decline even when pending listings rise, because a growing active listing denominator can outpace pending growth. The fact that both are moving in the same direction this spring is what makes the current setup notable.

Market efficiency, however, remains a clear weak spot. The Absorption Rate, which measures sold properties as a share of active inventory, came in at 19.98%. The historical average is 31.40%, so the market is absorbing inventory at roughly two-thirds of its long-run pace. The Market Flow Score, which combines four turnover metrics into a single index from 0 to 10, sits at 4.46 against a historical average of 6.56. Homes are selling, but the velocity of the market is well below normal. For real estate agents, this is the single most important number to internalize. The transaction volume is there, but it requires more work, more patience, and more skill to capture.

Sales volume itself is holding up better than the efficiency metrics would suggest. April 2026 closed sales came in at 2,791, up 5.6% year over year. The cumulative January through April sold count of 9,444 is up 3.1% from last year and 15.6% above the long-term average. The market is not frozen. It is just doing more transactions at a slower per-listing pace, which is consistent with elevated inventory and motivated, but cautious, buyers.

For investors and longer-term thinkers, the projection math remains sobering but rational. If the median price has truly bottomed at $439,000, returning to the May 2022 peak of $550,000 at the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.685% would take approximately 61 months, putting a return to peak around April 2031. That assumes appreciation resumes at the long-term trend rate, which has held remarkably steady across several decades of austin real estate cycles.

The buyer and seller balance across the metro tells the same story from a different angle. The Sellers per Buyer ratio sits at 2.7, with 17 of 30 tracked cities classified as Balanced, eight Cool, five Warm, and zero in Hot or Cold territory. Most of austin is in negotiating range. Buyers can ask. Sellers can respond. Deals are getting done.

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The takeaway from today's austin market update is straightforward. Prices have steadied near a four-year low, pending sales are quietly running ahead of last year, and inventory has stopped expanding. None of these signals individually constitutes a directional shift, but together they describe a market that is firmer than it was twelve months ago. Whether that firmness holds through the summer is the question that will define the next chapter of the austin real estate forecast.

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FAQ Section

1. What does the Market Flow Score mean for Austin buyers and sellers?

The Market Flow Score, or MFS, measures how efficiently the austin housing market is moving inventory from active listing to closed sale. Today's MFS sits at 4.46 against a historical average of 6.56, which means the market is operating at about 68% of its long-term efficiency. For buyers, that translates into more time to make decisions, more room to negotiate, and a lower likelihood of competing offers on most homes. For sellers, the same number means homes that are not priced and presented well will sit, and even good homes need realistic pricing and active marketing to capture the buyers who are actively shopping.

2. How long will it take for Austin home prices to recover to their 2022 peak?

Based on the current median sold price of $439,000 and the long-term austin compound appreciation rate of 4.685%, it would take approximately 61 months, or until April 2031, to return to the May 2022 peak of $550,000. That projection assumes the median has reached its bottom and that appreciation resumes at the historical trend rate. The market is currently down 20.18% from peak and would need 25.3% appreciation in the median to fully recover. This is a useful long-term planning number for both homeowners and investors thinking about the austin housing forecast in five to seven year terms.

3. Is Georgetown Texas a good place to buy a home in 2026?

Georgetown remains one of the more active resale markets in the austin metro with 1,200 active listings, the largest single-city inventory outside of austin proper. The median sold price for Georgetown in 2026 is $430,719, down 4.3% year over year and 11.7% off its peak. Months of Inventory in Georgetown sits at 5.23, which is in the Buyer Advantage zone, and 53.9% of active listings have had at least one price drop. For buyers, that combination of inventory depth and pricing flexibility makes Georgetown one of the more negotiable submarkets in the metro right now.

4. What is happening with new construction in the Austin market?

New construction continues to outperform resale in terms of pace. Of the 16,127 active listings in the austin market, 3,714 are new construction homes, and the new construction Activity Index sits at 32.92% compared to 21.09% for resale. That means nearly a third of new construction inventory is currently under contract, putting the new build segment in the Expansion phase of the market cycle. Builders are using rate buy-downs, closing cost incentives, and modest base price adjustments to keep their pipelines moving, and that strategy is showing in the absorption numbers.

5. Are Austin home sellers still getting their asking price?

The sold-to-list ratio for April 2026 came in at 97.67%, which means the typical austin home is closing for about 2.33% below its final list price. That number does not capture the price drops that happen before a contract is signed, and with 48.8% of active listings having taken at least one price reduction, the gap between original list price and final sold price is meaningfully wider than the headline ratio suggests. Sellers who price correctly from day one are getting closer to full asking. Sellers who chase the market down through multiple reductions tend to net less and take longer to close.

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