Austin’s housing market is walking a tightrope between rising supply and lagging demand, with inventory pressure keeping buyers in the driver’s seat as prices remain well below peak levels.

As of today, the Austin-area housing market holds 17,564 active residential listings, just 582 units shy of the all-time high reached at the end of June 2025. This figure is 15.4% higher than the same date last year, signaling sustained listing growth despite a moderating pace compared to the rapid surges seen earlier in the year. More telling is that 59.1% of these active listings have already undergone at least one price reduction, illustrating a market environment where sellers are recalibrating to meet more cautious buyer sentiment. In submarkets such as Georgetown, Manor, and Liberty Hill, over 62% of listings have price drops, indicating areas of more intense pricing pressure.

New listing activity year-to-date through July reached 33,990, up 7.7% compared with 2024 and 28.2% above the long-term average. However, pending contracts are not keeping pace. The market has recorded 27,351 cumulative pendings for the year, down 2.1% from last year, despite being 6.5% above average. This mismatch has expanded the year-to-date gap between new listings and pendings to 6,639 units. The current monthly new listing-to-pending ratio sits at 0.72, while the year-to-date ratio of 0.69 is well below the 25-year historical average of 0.82. These ratios underscore a slower absorption rate, reinforcing the leverage shift toward buyers.

The Activity Index, which compares current pending sales to active listings, sits at 19.5%, down from 21.5% a year ago. For context, a reading above 25% would indicate a more balanced or seller-leaning market, while today’s figure reflects a clear buyer’s market. Breaking this down further, new construction homes hold a stronger activity rate at 27.27%, compared to resale properties at just 16.69%. This disparity points to the ongoing competitiveness of builder incentives and the relative draw of move-in-ready new builds, even as the broader market slows.

Months of Inventory (MOI) climbed to 6.25 from 5.37 a year ago—a 16.5% increase—firmly in buyer’s market territory. Within the City of Austin, MOI has risen to 5.25, up 7.2% year-over-year. Some suburban markets such as Smithville, Cedar Creek, and Burnet have experienced MOI jumps exceeding 50% over the past year, reflecting slower absorption in areas where supply has expanded faster than demand.

Sales volume remains under pressure. July closed with 2,546 properties sold, bringing the year-to-date total to 17,748—down 5.5% from 2024, though still 6.8% above the long-term average. When adjusted for population, cumulative sales equate to 696 transactions per 100,000 residents, down 7.8% year-over-year and more than 21% below average. On a per-agent basis, the market delivered 953 sales per 1,000 REALTORS year-to-date, 1.5% lower than 2024 and a substantial 25.1% under historical norms. This reflects not only market-wide softening but also the increasing number of licensed agents competing for fewer transactions.

Prices remain well below their 2022 highs. The average sold price is $575,092, down 15.67% from the $681,939 peak in May 2022—a $107,000 drop. The median sold price is $435,000, representing a 20.91% ($115,000) decline from the $550,000 peak. Compared to three years ago, today’s median is down 15.53%. Based on the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.838%, if $435,000 marks the bottom of this correction, it would take approximately 62 months—until August 2030—for the market to return to its previous $550,000 peak.

Price performance varies by segment. The bottom 25th percentile of the market saw a slight 0.61% decline in median price over the past year, coupled with a 3.89% drop in price per square foot. In contrast, the top 25th percentile gained 1.92% in median price but still experienced a 3.44% decline in price per square foot, indicating that while higher-end properties are holding nominal price levels, concessions and negotiation on a per-square-foot basis remain common.

The Sold-to-Active Ratio is now 15.82%, about half the historical average of 31.87%, confirming weak absorption. Similarly, the Market Flow Score—an aggregate measure of turnover, demand, and momentum—registers 4.18 against a historical average of 6.60. Both metrics reinforce the conclusion that the Austin market is still in a sluggish, supply-heavy phase.

Overall, the August 8, 2025 data points to a market that remains firmly tilted toward buyers. Inventory is high, price reductions are widespread, and the pace of sales is slow relative to supply. While buyers benefit from greater selection and negotiating power, sellers face a more competitive environment where accurate pricing and differentiation are essential. Builders appear better positioned in the near term thanks to incentives and competitive activity rates, but even in new construction, absorption is slower than peak years. Unless pending sales see a notable acceleration heading into the fall, price stability will remain elusive, and the market may continue to test the lower bounds of this correction phase.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for: August 8, 2025​