Market momentum remains sluggish as new listings continue to outpace buyer demand, reshaping Austin’s housing dynamics heading into late summer.

As of August 6, 2025, the Austin residential real estate market continues to reflect an imbalanced, supply-heavy environment, underscored by a widening gap between new listings and pending activity. Active listings have dipped slightly from their recent peak but remain elevated at 17,495—still 15.8% higher than this time last year. This volume of available inventory, paired with the fact that 59% of all active listings have experienced at least one price reduction, highlights a highly competitive landscape where sellers are adjusting to buyer hesitancy and affordability pressures.

New listings for the year through July now total 33,990, up 7.7% from the same point in 2024 and 28.2% above the 25-year average. Despite this robust influx of supply, cumulative pending sales trail slightly behind, with 27,294 homes under contract so far in 2025—a 2.3% decrease year-over-year. This divergence yields a cumulative New Listing to Pending gap of 6,696 homes, pushing the year-to-date New Listing to Pending Ratio down to 0.69, well below the 25-year historical average of 0.82. Simply put, more homes are being listed than are going under contract, resulting in longer marketing times and increased pricing pressure across nearly all submarkets.

The Activity Index, which measures pending listings as a percentage of total active listings, fell to 19.6% compared to 21.7% at this time last year. This 9.5% decline further confirms a drop in buyer urgency and a tilt toward a more buyer-favored market. New construction listings continue to make up a disproportionate share of market activity, representing 27.17% of all available listings compared to just 16.82% for resale, amplifying the oversupply challenges in newly developed areas.

Months of Inventory—a key measure of supply-demand balance—has increased to 6.24, up from 5.34 a year ago, marking a 16.9% year-over-year rise. The Austin city-specific trend shows an even sharper 20.8% increase in inventory levels from January to August 2025. While some areas like Kyle and Manchaca are seeing small reductions in inventory, others such as Smithville, Jarrell, and Cedar Creek have experienced inventory growth exceeding 80% year-over-year, putting downward pressure on prices and increasing days on market.

Price performance data confirms the weakening trajectory. The average sold price has declined from the May 2022 peak of $681,939 to $576,480—a 15.46% or $105,459 drop. The median sold price, often more reflective of mid-market dynamics, now stands at $435,000, down 20.91% or $115,000 from its May 2022 peak of $550,000. When comparing today’s median price to values from 36 months prior, the decline registers at -15.53%. These drops represent a major reset in the market, especially in areas where demand has thinned and inventory has surged.

In terms of overall sales activity, cumulative closings from January to July reached 17,715—down 5.7% year-over-year but still 6.7% above the 25-year average. While that may suggest a stabilization trend on the surface, a deeper look reveals troubling declines in transaction density. Only 695 homes have sold per 100,000 residents so far this year, representing a 7.9% year-over-year decrease and falling 21.3% below the long-term average. Even more concerning, only 951 homes have sold per 1,000 active realtors—down 1.7% from last year and 25.2% below historical norms. These figures speak to reduced opportunities for agents and underscore a thinning pipeline of buyers.

The Sold-to-Active Ratio, which compares closed sales to the number of active listings, is sitting at 15.77%—well below the historical average of 31.87%. This metric alone suggests we are in one of the least competitive markets in the last two decades. Any ratio under 20% typically indicates a strong buyer’s market, where price negotiations are more common, and concessions are increasingly expected. For sellers, this means strategic pricing and value presentation are critical. For buyers, the current market offers considerable leverage.

The Market Flow Score (MFS), a composite measure of inventory turnover and buyer activity, is now 4.16 out of 10—far below the historical average of 6.60. This score encapsulates the broader slowdown in transactional velocity and highlights the need for market participants to reset expectations. Sellers must accept that list price is no longer the ceiling—it's now the starting point for negotiation.

One of the most telling data points comes from the city-level pricing breakdown. From August 2024 to August 2025, the bottom 25th percentile of homes saw prices drop by 0.61% and price per square foot drop by 4.51%. The top 25th percentile saw modest price gains of 1.96%, but still experienced a 2.37% decline in price per square foot. This means that even in higher-end segments, sellers are making concessions in price-per-square-foot terms to maintain buyer interest.

Looking ahead, using the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.838%, it would take an estimated 62 months—until August 2030—for the median home price to return to its May 2022 peak of $550,000. This projection assumes steady compound growth and no additional macroeconomic disruptions. It provides a sobering but realistic roadmap for investors, homeowners, and agents alike.

In conclusion, the Austin housing market remains in a rebalancing phase. Supply is strong, demand is tepid, and price discovery is happening in real time. Whether you’re a buyer looking to capitalize on favorable conditions or a seller aiming to price competitively, the key to success lies in embracing the data and adjusting your strategy accordingly.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for: August 06, 2025​